Signal
No order for 52 days
Tomas usually orders every 24 days. Today he passes twice his expected gap. The last thing he did was view the Trail Runner in size 43, which was out of stock.
Solution · Winback
Win back lapsed customers before they are gone.
Ayra runs Shopify customer winback from the customer's own rhythm, not a fixed day-30 timer. When a customer is overdue against their usual gap between orders, the engine opens a winback opportunity, checks what they last wanted, picks one action and records the reason. A customer who already came back on their own is left alone.
Private beta. Free migration from the apps Ayra replaces. Pricing
Winback
| Customer | Usual gap | Since | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas | 24d | 52d | Lapsed |
| Aisha | 90d | 61d | On track |
| Ben | 30d | 47d | Lapsed |
| Yuki | 365d | 340d | Due soon |
Next best action
- Tomas Restock alert · size 43 · SMS
- Aisha Nothing. Not due yet.
- Ben Held · refund open
- Yuki One reminder · Nov window
01 The merchant problem
Day-30 win-back emails win back the wrong people.
A fixed timer treats a weekly buyer and a yearly buyer the same. It fires at customers who were already coming back, and it fires too late for the ones who left.
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Lapsed means something different per customer
Someone who orders every three weeks is lapsed at day 40. Someone who orders every quarter is not lapsed at day 60. A store-wide timer gets both wrong.
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Three apps run their own winback
Loyalty sends 'we miss you', the email tool sends 15% off, the subscription app sends 'reactivate'. Same week, same customer, no one in charge.
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The offer ignores the reason they left
A customer who left after a late delivery gets a discount. One who left because their size sold out hears nothing when it restocks.
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Nobody can tell what worked
Every app claims the returning order, so winback looks like it works three times over.
What to measure
- Lapsed customers
- Customers past their own expected gap between orders, by segment, updated as orders and signals land.
- Winback rate
- Lapsed customers who ordered again inside the window after a winback action, attributed once to that action.
- Winback revenue against incentive cost
- Revenue credited to winback actions, next to the credit and discounts spent on them.
No benchmarks. Ayra compares your store to itself, by cohort and segment.
02 How Ayra solves it
How Ayra wins customers back.
- 01Explore Signals
Lapse detected from the customer's own rhythm
An expected reorder date is computed per customer from their order history. The winback opportunity opens when they pass a multiple of it, not on a store-wide day 30.
- 02Explore Loyalty
The right offer, in order
Saved wishlist items and restocked variants first, store credit from the Smart Wallet second, a discount last and only once. Incentive Guard stops a second discount on top of the first.
- 03Explore Flows
Held when it would do harm
Journey Guard holds winback while a support ticket or refund is open, and for customers who have hit their frequency cap. Every hold is logged with its reason.
- 04Explore Subscriptions
Subscribers get a save, not a winback
A subscriber who skipped twice is routed to Save Engine with a pause or a swap, not into the winback flow.
- 05Explore Analytics
Credited once
The returning order is attributed to the winback action that triggered it, so you can see whether winback pays for itself.
03 The workflow
One customer, start to finish.
Tomas, 6 orders · lapsed. Signal to outcome, one decision, every reason recorded.
Tomas
6 orders · lapsed
5 stages
Customer
Six orders, one open question
Gold tier, $612 lifetime value, no credit, no open tickets, SMS preferred. Last order delivered on time. His size restocked yesterday.
Opportunity
WINBACK opened, P1
Evidence: lapsed at twice his gap, and the variant he wanted is back in stock. Priority is raised because the restock answers the reason he stopped.
Action
A restock message, not a discount
The next best action is the back-in-stock alert for size 43, by SMS. The 15% winback discount in the flow is held by Incentive Guard as a second step, only if he does not order within five days.
Outcome
Order seven, discount never sent
He orders the same day. The opportunity closes, the discount step is cancelled, and the order is credited to Winback through Back in Stock.
04 Use cases
What it looks like in your store.
Open ticket 01
A lapsed customer has a refund in progress.
Ayra decides
Winback is held by Trust Recovery until the refund is resolved, then released a few days later. The timeline shows the hold.
Came back alone 02
A customer places an order the morning the winback flow was due.
Ayra decides
The order signal closes the opportunity. Nothing is sent, and the order is not counted as a winback.
Seasonal buyer 03
A customer orders every November.
Ayra decides
Their expected gap is a year. They are not lapsed in March, and they get a single reminder ahead of their usual window.
The modules behind it
All features- Explore Flows
Lifecycle Flows
Email, SMS and WhatsApp journeys that respect the customer's timeline.
- Explore Back in Stock
Back in Stock
Restock alerts prioritised by who's actually likely to buy.
- Private betaExplore Loyalty
Loyalty & Rewards
Points, store credit and VIP tiers that know who the customer is.
- Explore Subscriptions
Subscriptions
Subscriptions on Shopify's own contracts, with retention built in.
Switching?
Dated, sourced comparisons against the apps Ayra replaces. Migration is free during private beta.
05 FAQ
Questions merchants ask first.
How does Ayra decide a customer is lapsed?
From their own gap between orders, not a store-wide timer. A customer is lapsed when they pass a multiple of their usual gap, and that multiple is a rule you can read and edit.
Does winback always mean a discount?
No. The order is: what they wanted (a restock, a wishlisted item, a price drop), then store credit they already have, then a discount, once. Incentive Guard prevents stacking.
What if the customer is in a support dispute?
Trust Recovery holds outbound retention while a ticket or refund is open, and releases it a set number of days after resolution.
Can I run winback through Shopify Flow instead?
Yes. Ayra exposes its lapse and winback signals as Shopify Flow triggers and its actions as Flow actions. Integrations for external email tools follow after private beta.
How is winback revenue counted?
Once. The returning order is credited to the action that triggered it. A customer who ordered before the winback action went out is not counted.
06 Related solutions
Same engine, different outcome.
- See the workflow
Reduce customer churn
Read churn as signals and answer with a save, not a discount.
- See the workflow
Increase repeat purchases
Turn deliveries, wishlists and balances into second and tenth orders.
- See the workflow
Retention automation
One loop that decides per customer instead of a stack of triggers.
Every solution runs the same loop. How it works
Private beta
Find out how many of your customers are lapsed right now.
In private beta, Ayra computes expected reorder dates from your order history and shows you the winback list before anything is sent.